How the Trump-Netanyahu Deal Flipped the Script on Hamas

By Amit Segal

Hamas is currently a collection of frightened men who not long ago narrowly escaped an Israeli strike with advanced weaponry. They are in a room surrounded by Qatari guards, fully aware of what will happen to them if they say no to the deal Donald Trump has placed before them, because Qatar has given a commitment to the president of the United States.

To put this into perspective, just a few days ago, Israel appeared isolated on the international stage.

Hamas, meanwhile, had an international coalition behind it—in the form of its Muslim supporters in Qatar, Turkey and elsewhere, alongside the international campaign to delegitimize Israel, which Britain and co recently joined by recognizing a Palestinian state.

Well, the tables have been turned. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump convinced Qatar and Turkey to make a blunt threat to Hamas: if you reject this deal, we’ll give the IDF the green light to continue its operation in Gaza City.

And so, the terror group that began this war with an unimaginable victory now finds itself in check: either surrender, or reject the deal and watch its remaining Arab allies abandon it to certain checkmate.

So, will Hamas finally say yes? I spoke to Benjamin Netanyahu overnight, and even he’s not sure how they’ll respond.

But on the reasonable assumption that Hamas is unmoved by Qatari and Turkish pressure, the plan allows Israel to remain in Gaza, so long as Hamas rejects the deal. And while that won’t bring all 48 hostages back, it’s certainly a form of insurance for Israel’s security.

VIDEO: Trump and Netanyahu’s press conference

So while we wait on Hamas, let’s go through why this deal really is that good for Israel.

Jerusalem had three main goals in this war. The return of all hostages; ending Hamas’ rule in Gaza; and ensuring the government that takes over would not belong to the Palestinian Authority.

The deal achieves all three of those goals—and Israel gets the hostages back within 72 hours. If not? Netanyahu’s government has Doha and Ankara’s full backing to destroy Hamas. It’s quite astonishing, when you think about it, and I can only wish that it will be fully implemented.

Unfortunately, it’s not that simple. The far-right flank of Israel’s coalition is not exactly happy with the deal. Why? It doesn’t achieve their goals (which, by the way, were never the government’s official war goals): annexing Gaza, resettling it, and mass Palestinian emigration from the strip.

This morning, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich panned the deal as “trading real achievements on the ground for political illusions and a surrender to a diplomatic bear hug and glittering ceremonies.”

If Israel goes down this path, he says, “it will end in tears.” And his Religious Zionism party went one step further, threatening yesterday to leave the coalition if Trump’s plan is brought to the government for approval.

And if you think Smotrich isn’t happy, just wait for National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir to open his mouth.

So, they’re blocking the deal? Not quite. Despite the finance minister’s fierce criticism of the plan, he ended his lengthy statement by leaving the door open for compromise. “Is there no choice and is this the maximum that can be achieved right now? These are good questions,” he wrote. “We will consult, consider and decide.”

Either way, Bibi and Trump have a backup plan. In an attempt to prevent Ben Gvir and Smotrich from resigning, Jerusalem agreed with Washington that Netanyahu’s government would not vote on Trump’s plan. Rather, all that will be brought to the coalition for approval is the hostage deal: territorial withdrawals and release of Palestinian murderers in exchange for the hostages.

But what about the rest of the deal? It will still go forward—just without the coalition’s approval. In other words, Bibi is planning on bypassing his government in order to implement the plan.

Great, you may be thinking, in his real moment of truth, Netanyahu is finally shoving it to his far-right flank. Here’s where I disagree. As much as I like the deal, it’s plainly absurd not to bring such a dramatic plan to the government for approval. If you ask me, it also needs to be approved by the Knesset—but putting that aside for a moment, how can the State of Israel adopt such a significant plan without presenting it to its key decision‑making forum?

It’s a question the prime minister still has to answer, but it’s worth noting that the plan has wall-to-wall support from Israel’s opposition. Yair Lapid, Yair Golan, Avigdor Liberman, Benny Gantz, Gadi Eisenkot, and Naftali Bennett have all publicly backed it. In a country where disagreement for disagreement’s sake often rules the Knesset, such widespread consensus for such a dramatic move should not be taken for granted.

But now let’s look at a danger that this plan may present in the not-too-distant future. While the plan’s vision for the potential pathway for the creation of a Palestinian state is unlikely to ever be fulfilled, it could eventually put Israel in a bind. After all, a Democratic president or prime minister from Israel’s center-left may come along and ask, “Well, if the most right-wing government in Israel’s history and the most pro-Israel president America has ever seen gave even a hint of a Palestinian state, then why should I be more Catholic than the pope?”

That is a real concern—but one for the future nonetheless. For now, this is truly a great deal for Israel, and we should all hope that it can be fully implemented and that the Jewish state can finally bring all its children home from Gaza.

VIDEO: Amit Segal speaks with CNN’s Bianna Golodryga